when you consider that a different system would yield a different campaign strategy.

More delegate counting wonkery:

At that point, [Obama] would be able to dictate what happens in Florida and Michigan.

Man, every time I hear the word “dictate,” I get a warm feeling inside, know what I mean?

Maybe heartburn. Or my hypertension really kicking in.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

@manahmanah:

This should be used as an argument for the supers to decide who the best nominee would be, considering what a mangled mess the popular vote count is, in terms of legitimacy, and how arbitrary the pledged delegate count is (e.g., caucuses).* Also, since the GE is winner take all in assigning EV it makes sense in determining who would be the strongest candidate in November.

Obviously, everyone knows this so what exactly is flawed about using this argument to break a virtual tie or allow the primary to continue? Nothing prevented either candidate from focusing on the big EV states or the GE battlegrounds. Just because Obama has a poor track record in these states doesn’t mean he didn’t go all-out to win every big state from CA to OH.*

*Note: Rasmussen’s tallies do not include FL or MI.
**By win, I mean popular vote count win, not pledged delegate win; again, thinking about the GE.

First: Obama vs. Clinton in a primary does not hold transitive properties with Obama/Clinton vs. McCain in the GE. E.g. just because Clinton beat Obama in NH, it does not mean Clinton would do better in NH vs. McCain.
Second: Its silly to say that Obama wouldn’t have focused more time and resources in CA, for one, if the nomination were “winner take all”. A huge amount of analysis and thought goes into the decisons on time/resources.
Third: Sure, you can try to build a narrative around this idea, but it seems awfully contrived to me.

Going to bed now; have a good night.

Wow, you linked the definition of “transitive” for me! Gosh, thanks (Seriously, I chuckled when I saw that).

1. True. However, it’s not exactly wild speculation to believe that the person who does better in a certain state would be the stronger GE contender in that state. That’s why we pick the person who’s done best during the primary as our nominee. All we have are primary results—and polls. We can also look to the Survey USA polls which shows Clinton doing better against McCain than Obama, outperforming him in those states I mentioned in my previous comment.

Let’s look at just two states that give a broader picture of the GE race:
Ohio (a battleground):
Clinton v. McCain: 50-44 (6% undecided)
Obama v. McCain: 43-50 (7% undecided)

MA (the bluest of states):
Clinton v. McCain: 55-42 (3% undecided)
Obama v. McCain: 47-47 (6% undecided)

Mind you, these poll results show Obama at his peak considering that the media not only openly glorifies him but also ferociously protects him from scrutiny, something that will certainly not be the case should he be the nominee. Since his candidacy is a blank canvas, with his biography serving as its core, it will make him most vulnerable. Clinton, meanwhile, succeeds in spite of being despised by the media.

2. My point was that he was not disadvantaged at all.

3. How so? The whole basis of the superdelegates (or a floor fight) is to pick the stronger GE candidate. There’s nothing contrived about this argument. What else are we supposed to do? Good luck with figuring out this mess any other way that results with any hint of legitimacy for either candidate.

This is the stupid piece of hypothetical masturbation. WTF is being said here? That IF somehow we magically change the Dem primary to match RNC and it is magically all of the sudden winner-take-all somehow Clinton does better because all of the sudden CA all goes to Clinton?

This is like saying after the election, lets throw out electoral college and go with popular vote.

This is the saddest, most pathetic lets-play-pretend bullshit I’ve ever read.

I really want to punch someone in the face after reading this. It’s like assholes trying to rename “super delegates” as “automatic delegates”.

And I’ve said this before, if you think Clinton does 14 points (margin) better in Ohio, you are a fuckwad.

This is solely about presenting an argument to the superdelegates over who would be the stronger GE candidate or why the primary race should continue. There will be no change in pledged delegate or popular vote count totals.

Survey USA never guaranteed Clinton would win by any margin, but that this is what their latest available poll shows: Clinton doing much better than Obama against McCain in OH. And referring to the most accurate pollsters as “fuckwads” doesn’t exactly bode well for someone launching a crusade against desperation and pitifulness.

Keep an eye on this site:

FiveThirtyEight.com

I’m not literate in the methodology, but it takes a lot of measurable variables and provides a daily updated objective view of the hypothetical matchups. Its the best GE projections that I’ve seen. Head to head national polls is about useless in comparison.

Obama is no longer at his peak. Sure his negatives will still be hammered at some more, but double for McCain. McCain is about as peaked as he can get.

Didn’t intend to be condescending with the definition of transitive. The internets have a wide audience and I was trying to be thorough ;).

Manahmanah, I really can’t believe you said this:

Sure his negatives will still be hammered at some more, but double for McCain

McCain will be fluffed like a porn star, by our warrior dazzled media. Yes, attacks on McCain will reach the electorate, but I really think you underestimate how effective they will be. Whoever goes after McCain will have to demonstrate how unknowledgeable he really is about the economy and the war. And it will be hard, because the media will block that narrative. Obama’s negatives will be hammered twice as hard as McCain’s. Full Stop.

It is things like this that make me believe that most the OFB really thinks they don’t need Clinton supporters, because the AWSUMNESS of Obama will make them unnecessary, and the GE will be a cake walk.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

Yeah, I wasn’t clear. I meant its moreso true that McCain is nearer to his peak than is Obama. The Dems have not had the opportunity to focus exclusively on McCain yet.

I realize the media and conservative movement will be ruthless to Obama and I realize BHO will need HRC supporters. But I think you underestimate his toughness and campaign savvy. I also think HRC supporters underestimate her vettedness (word?) and susceptability to new lines of attack.

This is the stupid piece of hypothetical masturbation.

Are you new to the blogosphere?

“Don’t step in the Unity“

There are 19.

It’s a good thing you didn’t use douchebag. We’d be here all day waiting for you to, ahem, decide, and life’s too short for that.