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You call that a black swan?

Sat, 09/27/2008 - 2:37pm — lambert

Statistics nerds and wannabes, go read this by the wonderful writer and investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb. And then if you can invent The Shorter Nassim Nicholas Taleb, report back here....

I especially like this point on empirical, historical data:

My classical metaphor: A Turkey is fed for a 1000 days—every day confirms to its statistical department that the human race cares about its welfare "with increased statistical significance". On the 1001st day, the turkey has a surprise.

Indeed.

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Shorter NNT

By empty on Sat, 09/27/2008 - 3:23pm

Shit Happens.

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What was that old expression"

By tartu on Sat, 09/27/2008 - 4:54pm

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

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Shorter Taleb, applications not theory

By bringiton on Sat, 09/27/2008 - 6:31pm

Anyone willing to run with scissors should not be allowed to have them.

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I have no particular talent for the "shorter" genre

By a little night ... on Sat, 09/27/2008 - 7:30pm

But this may be the most important single sentence in the essay:

Because, not only have economists been unable to prove that their models work, but no one managed to prove that the use of a model that does not work is neutral, that it does not increase blind risk taking, hence the accumulation of hidden risks.

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We can't afford not to have single-payer!

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